The 2013 AFC playoff picture is almost set, with the final six teams having been decided. The only thing still to be determined in the AFC is what teams are seeded where, and what teams get that coveted first round bye.
There are five teams that have made the playoffs in the NFC, with three teams vying for that final wild card spot. By now, most of us know that the Atlanta Falcons have the #1 seed and home field locked up in the NFC. There are also two divisions still up for grabs, the NFC East and NFC West.
You all want to know who is going to get in, and who is going to get a first round bye, so I'll break down the entire playoff picture, giving the most probable outcome. I'll just start by saying that the final NFC Wild Card spot isn't as up for grabs as you might think it is.
AFC
North
Baltimore Ravens 10-5
Cincinnati Bengals 9-6
Pittsburgh Steelers 7-8
Cleveland Browns 5-10
South
Houston Texans 12-3
Indianapolis Colts 10-5
Tennessee Titans 5-10
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-13
East
New England Patriots 11-4
New York Jets 6-9
Miami Dolphins 7-8
Buffalo Bills 5-10
West
Denver Broncos 12-3
San Diego Chargers 6-9
Oakland Raiders 4-11
Kansas City Chiefs 2-13
The only place to start with either conference is with the teams that have locked up their divisions. The Baltimore Ravens have the AFC North locked up, the Houston Texans have the AFC South, the New England Patriots have the AFC East, and the Denver Broncos have the AFC West.
The two AFC Wild Card teams are the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals.
The only thing left to be decided in the AFC is what teams are the #1 and #2 seeds. The #1 seed would establish home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first round bye, and the #2 team would get a first round bye.
That #1 seed is something the Texans, Broncos, and Patriots are all still fighting for.
The Texans:
The Texans get home field advantage and a first round bye if they beat the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday. The Texans can also lose, but the Broncos and Patriots also have to lose. The Texans beat the Colts on the 16th at home, and I think they do it again. Sorry Bronco fans.
The Broncos:
The Broncos could lock up home field advantage and a first round bye if they beat the Kansas City Chiefs and the Texans lose. Look, the Broncos are going to beat the Chiefs, but that only means they lock up a first round bye, because I think the Texans beat the Colts.
The Patriots:
The Patriots could lock up home field advantage and a first round bye, but they would need to beat the Miami Dolphins and have both the Broncos and Texans to lose. Sure, the Patriots will probably beat the Dolphins, but they will be looking at the #3 seed, because the Broncos and the Texans will both win.
The Patriots could go in as the #2 seed and get a first round bye if they win and either the Broncos or Texans lose. Look, the Colts are going to give the Texans a good game, so this could happen. The Texans could end up with the #3 seed and lose their first round bye.
The Projected AFC playoff seeds:
#1 - Houston Texans - Home field and first round bye
#2 - Denver Broncos - First round bye
#3 - New England Patriots - Home field in first round Vs. #6 seed
#4 - Baltimore Ravens - Home Field in first round Vs. #5 seed
#5 - Indianapolis Colts - Wild Card
#6 - Cincinnati Bengals - Wild Card
If you're wondering, the top four seeds are the division winners, and that's automatic. If the Ravens lose this Sunday and the Colts beat the Texans, the Ravens with a 10-6 record would still have the #4 seed over the #5 seed Colts, even though the Colts would finish 11-5.
NFC
North
Green Bay Packers 11-4
Chicago Bears 9-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-6
Detroit Lions 4-11
South
Atlanta Falcons 13-2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-9
New Orleans Saints 7-8
Carolina Panthers 6-9
East
Washington Redskins 9-6
New York Giants 8-7
Dallas Cowboys 8-7
Philadelphia Eagles 4-11
West
San Francisco 49ers 10-4-1
Seattle Seahawks 10-5
St. Louis Rams 7-7-1
Arizona Cardinals 5-10
The NFC has two teams that have locked up their divisions. The Falcons have clinched the NFC South and locked up home field advantage and a first round bye. They will be the #1 seed in the NFC. The Green Bay Packers have locked up the NFC North. The 49ers and Seahawks are fighting it out for the NFC West, while the NFC East is a two team race between the Cowboys and Redskins.
The Vikings, Redskins, Cowboys, and Giants are all in the hunt for the last Wild Card spot in the NFC, with one belonging to either the 49ers or Seahawks. If the 49ers win the NFC West, the Seahawks are a Wild Card team. If the Seahawks win the NFC West, the 49ers are a Wild Card team.
Now, with the #1 seed locked up by the Falcons, the #2 seed and a first round bye is a race between three teams, the Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks.
The Packers:
If the Packers beat the Vikings this Sunday, they are the #2 seed. If the 49ers and Seahawks lose, the Packers are #2, win or lose. If the Packers tie with the Vikings, the 49ers have to lose or tie.
The 49ers:
The 49ers can get the #2 seed with a win over the Cardinals and a Packer loss. That could happen. If the 49ers tie with the Cardinals, they still just need a Packer loss to the Vikings.
To clinch the NFC West, if the 49ers win or tie with the Cardinals, they win the division. If the Seahawks lose the 49ers win the division, win or lose against the Cardinals.
The Seahawks:
The Seahawks can only get the #2 seed and a first round bye with a win over the Rams combined with a loss by both the Packers and 49ers. That's probably not going to happen.
The Seahawks can win the NFC West if they beat the Rams and the 49ers get beat by the hapless Cardinals. Don't count on that one either.
With those teams out of the way, who is going to win the NFC East?
The Dallas Cowboys:
Guess what. the Cowboys play the Redskins on Sunday night! This game will decide which team walks away with the NFC East. If the Cowboys win, they win the NFC East.
If the Cowboys lose Sunday night, they are out of the Playoffs. They would have an 8-8 record, not good enough for the final Wild Card spot.
The Washington Redskins:
If the Redskins beat the Cowboys, they win the NFC East.
If the Redskins lose to the Cowboys, they would need both the Vikings and Bears to lose to earn the final Wild Card spot.
The Giants:
The Giants need to beat the Eagles and the Cowboys to lose or tie and the Bears and Vikings to lose for the Wild Card spot.
The Vikings:
If the Vikings beat the Packers, they're in the playoffs. If the Vikings tie with the Packers, they need a Bears loss or tie. The Vikings will also be in if the Cowboys lose or tie and the Giants lose or tie and the Bears lose.
The Bears:
The Bears need to beat the Lions and need the Vikings to lose against the Packers. The Lions are 0-5 against division opponents, and have not been playing good football. The Packers have been playing good football, and should muster a win Sunday against the Vikings.
The Projected NFC playoff seeds:
#1 - Atlanta Falcons - Home field and first round bye
#2 - Green Bay Packers - First round bye
#3 - San Francisco 49ers - Home field in first round Vs. #6 seed
#4 - Washington Redskins - Home Field in first round Vs. #5 seed
#5 - Seattle Seahawks - Wild Card
#6 - Chicago Bears - Wild Card
What would expanding to 14 teams do to all this? Well, in the AFC this season, the Dolphins or Steelers would still be in the hunt, and this would be a case where an 8-8 team would get in.
In the NFC, the Vikings, at 9-7, would be the seventh team. The 9-7 Giants would sit at home.
Right now, the teams in the AFC would be the winners of each conference, and Colts and Steelers would earn a wild card if the season ended today.
Same thing in the NFC, with the Seahawks and Bears getting wild card spots if the season ended today.
Just in the NFC, the Vikings, Redskins, and Cowboys, right now all with winning records, would sit at home. The Bengals would be left out in the AFC.
This is just my take on who goes to the playoffs, and as what seed. I still think an expansion to 14 games would be a good fit for the NFL. 12 teams have been going to the playoffs since the league was composed of 28 teams. Lets face it, the Giants are probably going to beat the Eagles on Sunday, but the Cowboys, Bears, and Vikings all need to lose. The 9-7 Super Bowl Giants of 2011 will not even make the playoffs with that same 9-7 record this season.
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